The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from an earlier 6.9 per cent, primarily attributing the change to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this moderation, India is still expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
A three-year validity of an inflation target is, perhaps, more reasonable and practicable.
India's retail inflation marginally increased to 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.21 per cent in February, primarily due to an uptick in certain food items and the initial impact of the West Asia crisis on fuel prices, according to government data.
A lot depends upon the composition of the monetary policy committee.
The finance ministry is not revising its inflation target of 5 to 5.5 per cent for 2005-06 even after the fuel price hike.
Inflation targeting has worked well and the government must stay with it, and the framework is going to work well in the period ahead also, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Thursday. He also said low inflation contributes to sustainable growth. Addressing the 'Times Network India Economic Conclave' virtually, Subbarao said the government's proposal to privatise some public sector units is not akin to selling family silver but it is a route for putting India on a sustainable growth path.
Inflation targeting is not de facto a kind of shock therapy that the RBI wants to administer.
Union Finance Minister Jaswant Singh said on Monday that the government was confident of achieving the inflation target of 4.5 per cent for 2003-04 and ruled out any revision.
Are we adopting an idea whose time has come and gone? My feeling is, yes, says ex-banker C Joseph Chacko in the fourth article of the series on inflation targeting.
The Reserve Bank of India in its annual monetary policy predicts an annual inflation number every year which is not a mandate, as there is no inflation target set by the government.
The government had amended the RBI Act through Finance Act 2016.
M V Subramanian says there is an imperative need for collective responsibility to tackle inflation, prices and availability of essential commodities, and not rely on inflation targeting alone.
FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) reported nearly 30 per cent year-on-year revenue growth in Q1FY27, marking its highest revenue growth in 13 quarters, primarily driven by accelerated expansion in its fashion segment.
Under the new Monetary Policy Framework, the central bank aims to contain inflation at 4 per cent with a band of (+/-) 2 per cent.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for gifting 'Melody' toffees to Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, calling it a 'gimmick' while India faces an 'economic storm'. He accused Modi of prioritising public relations over addressing the struggles of farmers, labourers, and youth, a sentiment echoed by other Congress leaders.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced declines in early trade due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and weak global equity trends.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India's growth forecast for FY27 to 6.4 per cent, citing the potential impact of higher energy prices offsetting the country's economic resilience. Despite this, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies.
The Enforcement Directorate has attached assets worth approximately Rs 112.90 crore, including a residential property in Texas, USA, in a money-laundering case. The case involves a Noida-based air-conditioner components manufacturer, LEEL Electricals Limited, and its promoters, accused of defrauding a consortium of banks led by SBI of Rs 376 crore through manipulated financial statements and siphoning off funds.
'The real shock is going to be from a deficient monsoon.'
Retired banker P Balagopala Kurup says one of the reasons he favours inflation targeting is that its first priority is to insulate the lesser fortunate citizens from adversity and in the process to ensure that the economy retains its inherent vibrancy and strength.
Inflation targeting framework is now enshrined as a formal agreement by the government and the RBI; thus, it may seem that we are flogging a dead horse, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation target for the current financial year to 5.7 per cent on the back of rising global prices amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, even as it expected the prices of cereals and pulses to soften on prospects of good winter crop harvest. "Global food prices along with metal prices have hardened significantly. "Economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation... Inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23 with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent and Q4 at 5.1 per cent," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while unveiling the first monetary policy review for the current fiscal year.
Richard Clarida's recent paper could be key for policymakers in deciding whether India should move to an 'inflation targeting policy regime', says Vivek Dehejia.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
A wellspring fuelling the CJP tsunami is the high levels of youth unemployment. Millions of youngsters, including extremely over-qualified people, apply in desperation for any job that is advertised. No government has been able to deliver on this front and things may get worse as artificial intelligence enters the workforce, points out Devangshu Datta.
Fiscal outlook to be little bit challenging next year: CEA
The government on Wednesday asked the Reserve Bank to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026. To control the price rise, the government in 2016 gave a mandate to the RBI to keep the retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for a five-year period ending March 31, 2021.
IT stocks had their worst first half fall in decades, with the Nifty IT index declining 31% in the January-June 2026 period, its biggest decline in the first six months of a calendar year since 2003.
The primary objective should be to figure out a way to grow at 7 to 7.5 per cent with inflation around 4 per cent. Any policy that can help us get there must be experimented with. Those that work should stay. Those that do not should go, suggests Karan Bhasin.
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Omar Abdullah has so far laboured hard to make best of a bad bargain. Even so, the ground reality is anything but reassuring. The Opposition parties, including notably the PDP, appear to be gaining ground, though more by default. Public patience with Omar's government has nearly run out, notes Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the distinguished commentator on Kashmir affairs.
A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
